Trump's victory 'brings as much uncertainty to UK business as Brexit,' says market expert

Robert Hutchins

By Robert Hutchins

November 10th 2016 at 12:03PM
UPDATED November 11th 2016 at 12:03PM
Trump's victory 'brings as much uncertainty to UK business as Brexit,' says market expert

“For UK business it is a particularly big threat as trade with Europe is likely to decline as a result of Brexit, so companies have to offset business losses, but the US will also be a more difficult place to trade with.”

Donald Trump’s presidential victory over Hillary Clinton yesterday brings as much uncertainty to UK business as Brexit, according to a number of market experts.

The shock win by the political outsider resonated hard with experts around the globe amid reactionary reports of a fall in the strength of the US dollar and an uncertainty over how trump’s trade policies will affect global business.

In the hours following the announcement, markets appear to have recovered, but the aftershock and concern over the news of America’s seismic election results remain.

Among those voicing concern over the step into the unknown is Professor Christian Stadler, an expert and author on the subject of strategic management.

“We simply don’t know which of his campaign promises will translate into policy,” he said.

“For UK business it is a particularly big threat as trade with Europe is likely to decline as a result of Brexit, so companies have to offset business losses, but the US will also be a more difficult place to trade with.”

In the run up to the election Trump had been vociferous in his stance against free trade, leaving many with concerns over the potential rise in import duty in various industries.

"The negotiations on TTIP are likely to end. As the UK will no longer be in the EU this will not have a direct effect, but suggests that it will be difficult for the UK to negotiate a deal with the US," continued Stadler.

"We can expect substantial investment in US infrastructure, but this is not likely to benefit UK companies as contracts are likely to go to US companies.

"So what should UK companies do? There are two options: first, reduce US business and look for alternatives - this could mean a deliberate decision to shrink. Or set up subsidiaries in the US, so if a company operates in the US it won’t be affected by the new trade barriers.

"Another effect for UK businesses is that it could be more difficult to get work permits in the US for UK business people."

However, just how far the uncertainty lasts and its effect on UK interest rates – according to the BBC and chief economist at Aberdeen Asset Management, Lucy O’Carroll – depends on how long global markets stay ‘surprised.’

Yesterday, UK Prime Minister Theresa May addressed Trump in his new role, saying she was ‘looking forward to working’ with him, in a strong ‘trade, security and defence’ partnership.